Looking at projections for the 2024 Chicago Cubs (2024)

Every offseason I wait until the Cubs look like a quasi-finished project before writing up my thoughts on the new team. This year I waited longer than usual. Cubs Convention came and went. January turned into February. The ZiPS projections were released, so was PECOTA. And now, as pitchers and catchers report, the team still looks incomplete but it’s time to take a look at the Projections and the Chicago Cubs anyway.

As a reminder, projection systems all use different inputs to arrive at their conclusions for how the team will fare. They are also conservative by design, because the safest bet is to project the 50th percentile outcomes for the team. In other words, if you were to simulate the season thousands of times, what is most likely to happen in the future based on what happened in the past? Last season the projection systems all under-projected the 2023 Cubs record with Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA predicting a 74-win team, and Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections landing on a closer, but still short, 78-win season.

The 2023 Cubs exceeded both of those marks pretty considerably with their 83-game record. Additionally, according to the Pythagorean system, that 83-79 record was an underperformance of true talent based on the runs they scored vs. the runs they allowed. While it’s a much less complex system than the projections we’ll talk about today, according to their Pythag the Cubs should have finished the season 90-72 in 2023.

That said, that 2023 overperformance had a lot to do with some guys who are no longer on the team. On the pitching front, Shōta Imanaga is here to replace (and maybe improve upon) what Marcus Stroman did last season. However, even if that comes to pass, the Cubs are missing a big bat in the lineup because one of the guys who likely had the most to do with that overperformance was National League Comeback Player of the Year, Cody Bellinger. The former MVP centerfielder and first baseman is still unsigned, and the Cubs still look like a potentially great fit. But with every additional day that the staring contest between Jed Hoyer and Scott Boras continues, the more I resign myself to the reality that this is probably it for the 2023 Cubs.

So, with a hefty grain of “a lot can happen on the way to Opening Day, let alone October” salt, let’s take a look at what the projections see for the 2024 Cubs.

ZiPS

ZiPS projections are available at FanGraphs courtesy of Dan Szymborski and they are an excellent tool for seeing the range of possible player and team outcomes. I agree with pretty much every word of this from his preamble of the Cubs preview in mid-January:

Are the Cubs back to their mid-2010s form? That’s a bit of a stretch, but these Cubs showed they have a live pulse, not falling out of playoff contention until the final week of the 2023 season. Cody Bellinger, one of the reasons the offense was so potent (third in the National League in runs scored), turned out to be one of the best pillow-contract signings of all time. Perhaps a little too good, as it was enough for Bellinger to decline his side of a $25 million mutual option for 2024. The Cubs could still sign Bellinger, but even if they do, it’s not a great bet they’ll get the same production as last year. ZiPS is a bit more optimistic than Steamer, but it still projects a returning Bellinger to “give back” some of his contact and a significant chunk of his power.

Still, losing that offense hurts. The Cubs haven’t directly replaced it, but they’ve at least avoided any gaping holes. If the season started today, you’d probably see a lot of Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, and while ZiPS doesn’t project him to match Bellinger’s output, it’s a respectable projection that cushions the blow of a Bellinger loss. Dansby Swanson and Nico ho*rner combine to form one of the best middle infields in baseball — and a surprisingly underrated one. ZiPS is also surprisingly bullish on third base, regardless of whatever combination of Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Michael Busch end up playing there.

Dan was kind enough to include Bellinger in that write-up and those charts to give Cubs fans a distinct sense of what re-signing him could do for the team. He is not included in the team’s win-loss projection. It will surprise no one that the 80th/20th percentile outcomes for Bellinger are wide:

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs

Frankly, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the range of outcomes for most of the Cubs players are wide. No one from the team other than Seiya Suzuki has a 20th percentile outcome as an above average hitter. The Cubs are either a bit too old (Yan Gomes) a bit too young (Pete Crow-Armstrong) or a bit too volatile (Christopher Morel) to settle anywhere other than the margins.

Now let’s take a closer look at the pitching side:

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs

If the Cubs pitching hits on its best case scenario, they will probably take the division by storm. I can only imagine that Jed Hoyer brought in Craig Counsell specifically to tilt the scales as far towards that upside as possible. But it’s worth noting there are some question marks here as well. Imanaga is going to need to get used to a whole new country, let alone a new league and ball. Kyle Hendricks has shown flashes of Cyle recently, but has also struggled with injuries. Is Jameson Taillon the guy who finished 2023 with 90⅔ innings pitched and a 3.38 ERA after seemingly righting his season at Yankee Stadium in early July? Or is he the guy who threw 63⅔ innings at a whopping 6.93 ERA before that? Only time will tell.

PECOTA

Baseball Prospectus runs PECOTA each year to simulate individual player projections and outcomes, but also team win-loss records and divisional standings. As of today the Cubs are technically projected to be in second place in a really tight division as you can see below:

Baseball Prospectus

In case you were wondering what that looks like in terms of the range of outcomes PECOTA sees for the division you can see how tightly grouped it is below:

Baseball Prospectus

Honestly, what I see in these numbers is a division ripe for the taking and who better to move the needle than the Cubs? They are far and away the team with the most financial resources in the division and it’s a little bit infuriating to see them sitting on their hands while winning the division is clearly in reach. Relatedly, while I was working on this, Bruce Levine dropped this non-news about Cody Bellinger and the Cubs on Twitter:

The Cubs look like they should compete in a weak division, but they are honestly just a guy or two away from dominating it. On Valentine’s Day I find myself here, and I wish I were more optimistic: