Feds release their forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. It's not pretty. (2024)

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been a hot topic in the lead-up to the June 1 start of the season, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weighed in with a sobering forecast during a May 23 press conference.

NOAA predicts 15 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes during the 2024 season, which runs through Nov. 30.

A major hurricane is any storm reaching Category 3 on the Saffir Simpson scale, meaning minimum sustained winds of 111 mph.

The forecast represents the highest number of storms NOAA has ever predicted in its May forecasts.

“All the ingredients are in place to have an active season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, during the press conference. “It’s reason to be concerned, but not alarmed.”

Confidence in the forecast is high as NOAA reports an 85 percent chance of above-normal activity and only a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season.

A long and busy hurricane season is expected due to a confluence of several key factors. The current forecast calls for above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic during the peak months of the hurricane season from August to October.

“We know warm sea-surface temperatures are an important factor in rapid intensification of tropical cyclones to major hurricane status,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said.

Additionally, there is a 77 percent chance for the formation of La Niña conditions in the Pacific in the August to October time frame, which typically leads to reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear.

“This type of environment can be more conducive to tropical cyclone development,” Spinrad added.

While high ocean temperatures contribute to the rapid intensification of storms, Graham noted that every Category 5 hurricane to strike the U.S. in the last 100 years was a tropical storm or less just three days prior to reaching peak strength. The average lead time on a Category 5 hurricane is 50 hours, he said, a fact that points to the necessity of planning and preparedness before storms develop. It was a point made repeatedly during the one-hour conference.

NOAA also calculates a metric known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which is a mathematical measure of all wind energy expected in the NOAA forecast. According to Spinrad, the most destructive hurricanes have historically occurred in years with a high ACE number.

The ACE number for the 2024 season is the second highest ever calculated. The highest ACE forecast came in 2010, a season that delivered 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

Discussing the dangers related to hurricanes, Graham referred to a study of hurricane-related fatalities that examined data from 2013 to 2023. The study revealed that 90 percent of those fatalities resulted from water. Most were related to heavy rainfall and flooding, with a significant number of preventable drownings happening when people attempted to drive through flooded areas.

Fatalities related to storm surge have been on the decline, due in part to the decision to issue separate wind and storm surge warnings, which led to earlier evacuation warnings.

“Since 2013, we’ve seen more fatalities from surf and rip currents than we have from wind and storm surge,” Graham said. “Remember, you’ve got to run from the water and hide from the wind.”

An “extremely active” season has already been predicted by Colorado State University, which has issued forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season since 1989.

Their April 4 forecast called for 23 named storms in the Atlantic Basin during the 2024 season. Eleven of those are predicted to develop into hurricanes. They also predict a higher chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season recorded the fourth-highest number of named storms since 1950 with 20. There were seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Only Hurricane Lee reached Category 5 strength.

Hurricane Idalia was the only hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. during the 2023 season. It was born off the west coast of Central America in late August and crossed the Gulf of Mexico. It rapidly intensified into a Category 4 storm before making landfall in the Big Bend region of western Florida. Idalia tracked through Florida and Georgia, losing strength along the way. It crossed into South Carolina in the late afternoon Aug. 30 as a tropical storm.

While Idalia weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm, it was still potent. A video taken in Goose Creek showed a car lifted and dropped by a tornado that touched down. And storm surge, exacerbated by the timing of the storm coinciding with a full moon and high tide, contributed to the fifth-highest tide on record in Charleston Harbor. Still, damage from Idalia was not widespread.

Colorado State University is expected to update its forecast on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

“Now is the time to prepare and stay prepared,” Spinrad said. “Remember, it only takes one storm to devastate a community. It’s prudent to prepare now because once a storm is headed your way, you won’t have the time to prepare and plan at that point.”