All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (2024)

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141946

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CO/KS/NE AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind gusts around 60-80 mph will be possible through this evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong to locally severe storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through about dusk.

20Z Update

Convection from New England to the Upper OH Valley has largely struggled to greatly intensify beyond a marginally severe status as of yet. Still, where boundary-layer warming has been more pronounced from parts of the Upper OH Valley, DE Valley, and southern to eastern New England, a few clusters may yet produce strong to localized severe gust before convection diminishes after dusk.

The central states severe threat appears on-track. Deepening convection from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains northward along the Front Range should intensify as it impinges on the strengthening buoyancy plume over the central High Plains. For additional short-term information, see MCD 1262.

..Grams.. 06/14/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/

Central Plains

A mid-level shortwave trough over the Southwest will continue northeastward today towards the central Rockies/Plains. Post-frontal, low-level easterly upslope flow is ongoing across the central High Plains to the Front Range in eastern CO. A somewhat moist-level airmass is present across this area, and robust daytime heating is forecast with little cloud cover present on recent visible satellite imagery. Initially high-based thunderstorms should form over the central Rockies as forcing aloft overspreads this region. Modest, but sufficient, mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough and related deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization and a threat for severe hail with more discrete cells initially.

A fairly quick evolution/upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster still appears likely as convection spreads east-northeastward into the central High Plains later this afternoon and early evening. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should materialize as this mode transition occurs. As low-level lapse rates become steepened with robust heating, and the boundary layer becomes very well mixed, some risk for isolated significant severe gusts (75-80 mph) may develop. This risk appears relatively greatest across parts of eastern CO into adjacent portions of western KS/NE. Late this evening, the cluster should eventually encounter a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the central Plains, and subsequently weaken.

Northern Plains/Rockies

Diurnal destabilization should occur today near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support isolated stronger storms capable of producing occasional hail and strong-to-severe wind gusts. This threat should tend to remain fairly isolated/marginal.

Northeast/Mid-Atlantic

Recent visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. This should tend to delay/mute daytime heating to some extent, especially with northward extent into New England. Even so, filtered diurnal heating, and less cloud cover southward into the Mid-Atlantic, will support modest destabilization. Most guidance continues to suggest that MLCAPE will generally reach around 500-1000 J/kg by mid afternoon ahead of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across these areas this afternoon as the front continues eastward in tandem with a mid/upper-level trough over eastern Canada. With around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear available to support updraft organization, occasional damaging winds should be the primary threat with any clusters or short line segments that can develop. Isolated hail may also occur with initially more discrete activity. This activity is forecast to spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, before eventually weakening and/or reaching the coast.

Additional convection may form this afternoon along the trailing portion of the cold front in western PA, northern WV, and southeast/central OH. An embedded, low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may aid this development, along with modest low-level convergence along the front. Overall thunderstorm coverage is still somewhat uncertain with westward extent into the OH Valley. But, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a mix of a couple of supercells and small clusters with associated hail/wind threat, support a westward expansion of the Slight Risk to account for this potential.

See Also

Storm Prediction Center Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)What 'High Risk' Severe Weather Outlooks Mean | Weather.comDay 3-7 U.S. Hazards OutlookNOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains.

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains.

Mid-MO Valley

A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night.

Northern Great Plains

A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas.

The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring.

..Grams.. 06/14/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook Summary

Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140700

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN

### SUMMARY

Scattered strong and a few severe storms are expected Sunday evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk.

Synopsis

An upper trough will develop further over much of the western CONUS on Sunday, as a leading and potent shortwave trough skirts northern MT and ND with the parent low moving into MB. Moderate southwest winds aloft will remain over much of the northern Plains and upper MS valley during the day, with rising heights over the Great Lakes as the eastern ridge builds. Meanwhile, heights will generally lower over much of the West with an upper low over northern ID.

At the surface, a front will move into the upper MS Valley as the primary surface low moves northward across MB. This front will become nearly stationary from WI into NE late in the day and overnight, while a large surface ridge remains over the Southeast. Southwest winds will aid moisture advection from the OH and mid MS Valley northward into MN, WI, and the upper Great Lakes toward the vicinity of the stationary front. Early warm advection and lift with the low-level jet will aid morning rain and storms from WI into MI, with generally weak lift for much of the day points west.

Central high Plains toward the upper Great Lakes

Storms are likely from parts of WI into MI early on Sunday as 60 kt westerly 850 mb winds aid theta-e advection, resulting in substantial elevated instability along with lift. Some of this activity could contain hail as it moves quickly east during the day.

To the west, lift will be weak for much of the day as the lead trough and low lift well north of the area. By evening and into the overnight, conditions appear favorable for scattered storms along and north of the surface front extending roughly from eastern WY into Upper MI. Here, 40 kt midlevel winds parallel to the front, along with elevated CAPE over 2000 J/kg will likely support areas of hail through the night.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140823 SPC AC 140823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean troughing over the western states for much of the period. While moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further, significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4 and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area for Mon/D4. Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the eastern ridge to hold.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

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National Risk Overview

Friday, June 14

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Saturday, June 15

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Sunday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Tuesday, June 18

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Wednesday, June 19

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Thursday, June 20

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Friday, June 21

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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